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Long term charts(¯o) - 2

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Author	Topic: Long term charts(¯o) - 2
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 21-11-2005 00:12 Divergence Nickel vs. Copper ...
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 21-11-2005 14:49
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-12-2005 19:02 [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 03-01-2006).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 10-07-2006 10:57
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 16-07-2006 20:55
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 23-07-2006 17:39
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 24-07-2006 21:29
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-07-2006 10:08 [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 27-07-2006).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 23-11-2006 09:18 [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 27-09-2008).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 23-11-2006 15:09
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 23-11-2006 15:10 Tyren's macromodel : Phase 1(spring ) : -------- Stage: Full Recession(Late contraction, early expansion) Consumer Expectations: Reviving Industrial Production: Bottoming Out Interest Rates(3 month rate): Falling Yield Curve: Normal Market: Market bottom Good sektors: Financials, consumer cyclicals, transportation, technology Phase 2(summer) : -------- Stage: Early Recovery(Early/middle expansion) Consumer Expectations: Rising Industrial Production: Rising Interest Rates: Bottoming out Yield Curve: Normal(steep) Market: Bull market. Strong. Good sektors: Transportation, technology, services, transport ?, capital goods, industry, basic materials, energy... (almost all sectors). Phase 3(autum) : -------- Stage: Full Recovery(Late expansion/Early contraction) Consumer Expectations: Declining Industrial Production: Flat Interest Rates: Rising rapidly (fed) Yield Curve: Flattening out Market: Market top Good sektors: 3a. Industry, basic materials, energy, 3b. Energy, consumer staples, healthcare, services ?, utilities Phase 4(winter) : -------- Stage: Early recession(Early contraction/late contraction) Consumer Expectations: Falling sharply Industrial Production: Falling Interest Rates: Peaking Yield Curve: Flat/inverted(long rates often falling) Market: Bear market(it can be weak bullish also, best for interest sensitive stocks) Good sektors: 4a. Consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, 4b. Utilities, financials.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 30-12-2006 21:44
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 30-01-2007 20:04
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 07-04-2007 13:18 http://www.aksjeinfo.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/000113.html [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 07-04-2007).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 08-04-2007 20:15 Made feb.2001, updated apr.2005, updated apr.2007. : Tyren's macromodel : Phase 1(spring ) : -------- Stage: Full Recession(Late contraction, early expansion) Consumer Expectations: Reviving Industrial Production: Bottoming Out Interest Rates(3 month rate): Falling Yield Curve: Normal Market: Market bottom Good sektors: Financials, consumer cyclicals, transportation, technology/semiconductors. Phase 2(summer) : -------- Stage: Early Recovery(Early/middle expansion) Consumer Expectations: Rising Industrial Production: Rising Interest Rates: Bottoming out Yield Curve: Normal(steep) Market: Bull market. Strong. Good sektors: Transportation, technology, services, transport ?, capital goods, industry, basic materials, energy... (almost all sectors). Breadth very good. Bonds bad. Utilities and finance lagging. Phase 3(autum) : -------- Stage: Full Recovery(Late expansion/Early contraction) Consumer Expectations: Declining Industrial Production: Flat Interest Rates: Rising rapidly (fed) Yield Curve: Flattening out Market: Market top Good sektors: 3a. Industry, basic materials, energy, 3b. Energy, consumer staples, healthcare, services ?, utilities. Crude oil good. Phase 4(winter) : -------- Stage: Early recession(Early contraction/late contraction) Consumer Expectations: Falling sharply Industrial Production: Falling Interest Rates: Peaking Yield Curve: Flat/inverted(long rates often falling) Market: Bear market(it can be weak bullish also, best for interest sensitive stocks) Good sektors: 4a. Consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, 4b. Utilities, financials. Bonds good. Crude oil, oil-service, industry and often Nikkei lagging. Often tech and semis lagging also. Macro4 hard landing will give bearmarket in stockmarket. Soft landing will give weak bullmarket or weak bearmarket. [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 08-04-2007).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 06-05-2007 18:40 [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 06-05-2007).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 17-06-2007 20:37 Macro : så litt på fasene som har vært siden 1960. Før det er det er det for dårlige data etter min mening. Jeg har samlet mye av det vi har snakket om på denne topic i denne boken/heftet : http://taurus5.com/book.htm Det var soft landing i ca. 1959-61 og 1966-67, mid1984-mid86, 1996-mid98. Den 1959-61 er litt usikker, ser spreaden "10 år minus 3mnd" går kraftig opp her(resesjon ! , hard landing ). (se side 45) De tre andre med soft er ikke uventet karakterisert med med flat til svak stigende rentekurve. Det har alltid kommet en hard landing en 2-4 år etter en soft landing eller tilsvarende dvs flat til svak stigende rentekurve. [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 17-06-2007).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-07-2007 00:03 Sunspot activity og "gode og dårlige tider". Kondratieff er 40-65 års sykluser(snitt 58 år). Fikk en ide om at 1930-1945/50 var "macro4(winter) hard landing" og 1990-2003 var soft landing. Ikke glem at Japan toppet i 1990. Ian Gordon her har "Winter/deflasjon" fra år 2000, men da tror jeg "platået(macro3(høst))" 1980-2000 blir for langt. Platået skal være svak nedgang i rentene(1980-1990) og ref. jan2000-jan2001 i 5 års-syklusen.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-07-2007 00:07 Olje og 5 mnd ledere. Fortsettelse av side 53-58 i boken. Aug2006 hadde 3 drive og begge ledere ledet ned. Var super-bearish der. Ca. feb/mars2007 ledet lederene opp. Ingen price-pattern. Var bullish her for de neste månedene. Nå er lederne uenige. Price-pattern er noe bearish. Konklusjon : usikkert. Svakt bearish.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-09-2008 14:27 Aksjemarkedet ledet en ca 5 mnd ned i år også. Oljemarkedet kom etter, ned fra ca $147 til ca $92 pr fat.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-09-2008 14:29 Laget denne for over 2 år siden. Makro 4 går nå mot slutten. [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 27-09-2008).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-09-2008 14:51 VIX gikk opp siste 2 år, den er på 34 nå. November 2006 : September 2008 : [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 27-09-2008).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 04-01-2009 23:56 Bonds :
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 28-05-2009 22:38 Update 10 year minus 3 month interest rate :
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2609 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 12-10-2009 22:08 Phase 1(spring ) : Stage: Full Recession(Late contraction, early expansion) Consumer Expectations: Reviving Industrial Production: Bottoming Out Interest Rates(3 month rate): Falling Yield Curve: Normal Market: Market bottom Good sektors: Financials, consumer cyclicals(when interest rates are falling), transportation, technology/semiconductors. Phase 2(summer) : Stage: Early Recovery(Early/middle expansion) Consumer Expectations: Rising Industrial Production: Rising Interest Rates: Bottoming out Yield Curve: Normal(steep) Market: Bull market. Strong. Good sektors: Transportation, technology, services, transport , capital goods, industry, basic materials, energy... (almost all sectors). Breadth is very good. This is what we call “wave 3” in Elliott wave in technical analysis, the strongest and longest wave. Bonds(30 year) are normally going down. Utilities and finance are normally lagging. This is a phase where rising interest rates are not so bad for the total stock-market. Phase 3(autum) : Stage: Full Recovery(Late expansion/Early contraction) Consumer Expectations: Declining Industrial Production: Flat Interest Rates: Rising rapidly (fed) Yield Curve: Flattening out Market: Market top Good sektors: 3a. Industry, basic materials, energy, 3b. Energy, consumer staples, healthcare, services , utilities. Crude oil is still good and outperforming. Crude oil normally lags the stock-market, it’s a late mover. Phase 4(winter) : Stage: Early recession(Early contraction/late contraction) Consumer Expectations: Falling sharply Industrial Production: Falling Interest Rates: Peaking Yield Curve: Flat/inverted(long rates often falling) Market: Bear market(it can be a weak bullish market also, best for interest sensitive stocks). Hard or soft landing. Good sektors: 4a. Consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, 4b. Utilities, financials. Bonds are good(rates falling). Crude oil, oil-service, industry and often Nikkei lagging. Often tech and semis lagging also. Macro4 hard landing will give a bearmarket in the stockmarket. Soft landing will give a weak bullmarket or a weak bearmarket.

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