posted 08-10-2007 14:51            

Endre Fant dette, redigert :

"What Works in Trading & Why
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April 25th, 2006 – 07:50am PDT
Here is a trading model that is unbelievably effective and robust. It’s built around some very simple, but very big ideas. Ideas you can probably use to your own benefit as a framework for developing a trading plan. Now, simple does not mean easy to execute. On the contrary, high-probability trades, ideal trade location, in any market is often counter-intuitive and psychologically a difficult place to do business.
Big Idea #1: Clifford Asness is a quant. A 39-year old who, last I checked, was pushing $13.5 billion around in market in ‘05. His wildly successful hedge fund AQR Capital is built on two insights that seem contradictory : “Cheap assets outperform expensive assets more than they should” and “Momentum portfolios work better than they should.”
Now Asness, like most with an edge, tends to be pretty secretive, but I’ve got a few quant friends in that world and I understand, in general, what he does. He sorts stocks (or whatever assets he’s trading) into deciles from cheap to expensive, and he buys when stocks in the cheap decile group trigger a momentum buy; he then shorts roughly an equal amount of stocks in the expensive decile group as they trigger a momentum sells and rides this market neutral portfolio.

Big Idea #2: Joseph Hart is an obscure technical trader who wrote a course on technical trading called Trend Dynamics (http://trend-dynamics.com/TD_Products_Self_Guided.htm) which I had the privilege to edit. Someone in Elite forum called it “one of the best courses that nobody knows about”. Hart’s one of those old school technicians who hand-charted markets before PCs were ubiquitous and whose market insights are credited with helping more than a few turn their trading avocations into trading careers.
One of his insights (and he has many) that I’ve embraced is what he calls the 7th Law: “That dramatic price movements tend to unfold from price structures that minimize profitable participation.” In brief, he focuses on trade location around swing extremes and identifies where longs (or shorts) are likely to get stopped out (their participation minimized) and fades that.

Big Idea #3: Pete Steidlmayer, a legendary independent floor trader since 1963, started teaching his unconventional ideas about reorganizing and reading price data (market profile) in the 80’s to standing room only crowds at the CBOT. These weren’t the typical crouwd of retires managing IRAs and wannabe daytraders flocking to some trading symposium, but pros already trading on the floor. Personally, I think Steidlmayer may be the premier market thinker of our time, and little understood or appreciated.
Something he said that I certainly appreciate is that: “Under most circumstances markets are either readable or reliable.” Here’s another seemingly contradictory idea. He is saying that high probability entries (i.e. reliable) are difficult to identify; or to turn it around, entry levels that are easy to identify using conventional tools are probably not reliable and low probability entries.
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1. “Cheap assets outperform expensive assets more than they should” and “Momentum portfolios work better than they should.”

Momentum : ja, helt klart. Wave4 virker bedre enn wave2 med samme pullback. Trend er bedre enn ikke trend.

2. “That dramatic price movements tend to unfold from price structures that minimize profitable participation.”

Ja. F.eks. 3 drive topp. Alle new high -traderne er med her long, samt at shorterne med SL ved high eller lavere er blitt stoppet ut 2 ganger. Og hvem vil risikere en å bli stoppet ut 3 ganger på rad, så få er short ved slutt på 3 driven.
I tillegg blir new high -traderne stoppet ut for andre gang på rad når kursen går under topp2, dvs. få vil være long når kursen begynner å falle.

3. "He is saying that high probability entries (i.e. reliable) are difficult to identify; or to turn it around, entry levels that are easy to identify using conventional tools are probably not reliable and low probability entries."

posted 10-10-2007 21:09            

Major Oil Companies

posted 30-11-2008 19:03            

Price cycle : http://www.campusi.com/search.pl?cat=book&op=group&group_by=id&store_id=&browse_value=&q=keyword%3Dprice%2520cycles&rq=&nq=&lang=en-us&search_country=us&shipto=us&cur=usd&limit=10& nw=y&rcount=2&sort=group_count:desc&is_frm=

posted 30-05-2009 12:49            

Realestate historic cycles : http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/Journal/papers/pdf/past/vol14n03/v14p233.pdf
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3750/is_199701/ai_n8746752/pg_6/

Bra info : http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=100323 http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=78774&mode=linear#post78774

posted 16-07-2009 13:57            

Price :
https://csidata2.com/cgi-bin/ua_order_form.pl#fullhistory

posted 08-01-2011 23:34            

2002 : http://www.pbs.org/nbr/info/local-player.html?s=nbre07s3604qbad

2009 :
Dr. Daniel Kahneman : http://www.pbs.org/nbr/info/local-player.html?s=nbre07s3604qbad

Konklusjon om mennesker generelt :
For mye trading og for stor tiltro.

Gruppe :
Å være "follower" i læringsprosessen er effektivt : http://www.pbs.org/nbr/info/local-player.html?s=nbre07s3604qbad

Dog bør man passe seg for "gruppe-enigheten"(flokk-effekten) i beslutningsprosessen.