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Author	Topic: Sektorer USA - weekly.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 29-03-2005 17:49 1. a. UTH/XLU, XLF, b. XLY(Consumer disc.)?, XLK, SMH, BBH?, 2. a. XLY(Consumer disc.)?, XLK, SMH, BBH?, b. XLI, XLB/IYM, XLE, OIH 3. a. XLI, XLB, XLE, OIH, b. XLE, OIH, XLP, XLV, PPH, UTH 4. a. XLP, XLV, PPH, UTH b. UTH, XLF [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 28-10-2005).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 29-03-2005 19:34 . [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 14-04-2009).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 30-03-2005 21:12 . [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 14-04-2009).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 06-04-2005 17:08 . [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 14-04-2009).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 18-08-2005 22:19 .
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 27-11-2005 18:44 Sectors USA - 2 months
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 29-11-2005 18:38 Sectors USA - 1 year
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 02-07-2006 09:27 .
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 02-07-2006 09:32 [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 02-07-2006).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 02-07-2006 09:45 [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 02-07-2006).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 09-10-2006 08:48 http://www.spdrindex.com/sectorResearch/data/altavistaSPDRConsolidated.pdf
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 09-10-2006 08:53 Now strong(makro 4) : XLF,u,v,p,y, pph k Medium : ^xbd, bbh, iwm Weakest : xlb,i,e,oih,smh,xhb,gdx
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 07-04-2007 09:24 Last 9 months : Strong : XLU, XLF, XLP. Weak : XLK, SMH,XHB,XLI, OIH,XLE,breadth
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 07-04-2007 09:35 Macro4 soft landing.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 07-04-2007 13:09 Some charts : http://www.aksjeinfo.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/000093.html
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 07-04-2007 13:16 Tyren's macromodel (made feb.2001, last tuned apr.2005): Phase 1(spring ) : -------- Stage: Full Recession(Late contraction, early expansion) Consumer Expectations: Reviving Industrial Production: Bottoming Out Interest Rates(3 month rate): Falling Yield Curve: Normal Market: Market bottom Good sektors: Financials, consumer cyclicals, transportation, technology Phase 2(summer) : -------- Stage: Early Recovery(Early/middle expansion) Consumer Expectations: Rising Industrial Production: Rising Interest Rates: Bottoming out Yield Curve: Normal(steep) Market: Bull market. Strong. Good sektors: Transportation, technology, services, transport ?, capital goods, industry, basic materials, energy... (almost all sectors). Phase 3(autum) : -------- Stage: Full Recovery(Late expansion/Early contraction) Consumer Expectations: Declining Industrial Production: Flat Interest Rates: Rising rapidly (fed) Yield Curve: Flattening out Market: Market top Good sektors: 3a. Industry, basic materials, energy, 3b. Energy, consumer staples, healthcare, services ?, utilities Phase 4(winter) : -------- Stage: Early recession(Early contraction/late contraction) Consumer Expectations: Falling sharply Industrial Production: Falling Interest Rates: Peaking Yield Curve: Flat/inverted(long rates often falling) Market: Bear market(it can be weak bullish also, best for interest sensitive stocks) Good sektors: 4a. Consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, 4b. Utilities, financials. -- http://www.aksjeinfo.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/000134.html http://www.aksjeinfo.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/000157.html
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 01-12-2008 23:23 Makroøkonomi : Ok. Jeg har siden 2006 vurdert det slik at verden var i makro 4(vinter) og at den ville vare til ca høst 2008. Pga det som skjedde i september så er det utsatt. Utsatt med ca ett år vil jeg tro. Tegn og se etter i makro 1(vår) er at tech, finans, større konsumer varer, "smallcaps" og bredden begynner å lede, samt at "consumer staples"(dagligvarer) gjør det dårligere enn S&P500.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 01-12-2008 23:53 De norske sektorene som olje, råvarer, industri osv. er best i fase 2 og 3. De er litt "late movers" pga de er basert en del på realøkonomien. Dvs de vil underperforme i fase 1 og outperforme i fase 3. I fase 4 vil de ofte falle mye, spesielt i midten og på slutten av fase 4.
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 14-04-2009 19:28 Har laget en link med de defensive sektorene (XLP og XLV) : link Dette er den vanlige linken med lederne(XLK, bredde osv) dvs hvis de leder opp så indikerer det oppgang : link
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 14-04-2009 22:55 Langsiktig : lederne er positive siste 4 måneder. Man har hatt ca 4 måneder nå der XLK(tech), bredde osv har gjort det bedre enn S&P500 samt at de defensive sektorene XLP(consumer staples) og XLV(healthcare) har vært svakere enn S&P500. Dette er underliggende bullish for S&P500. Kortsiktig virker dog S&P500 overkjøpt. [This message has been edited by Tyren (edited 14-04-2009).]
Tyren Senior Member Posts: 2598 Registered: Oct 2000	posted 16-04-2009 23:15 Min tolkning er at vi nå er i overgangen mellom makrofase 4(vinter) og makrofase 1(vår). Makrofase 1 skal etter makro-modellen ha normal stigende rentekurve(se makro-modellen lengre opp).

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